{"id":1313,"date":"2025-11-19T14:24:54","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T14:24:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.unitec.edu\/conicieti\/?post_type=poster&#038;p=1313"},"modified":"2025-11-19T14:24:54","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T14:24:54","slug":"analisis-de-la-variacion-del-lempira-frente-al-dolar-perspectiva-prepandemia-pandemia-y-pospandemia-en-la-economia-hondurena","status":"publish","type":"poster","link":"https:\/\/www.unitec.edu\/conicieti\/poster\/analisis-de-la-variacion-del-lempira-frente-al-dolar-perspectiva-prepandemia-pandemia-y-pospandemia-en-la-economia-hondurena\/","title":{"rendered":"An\u00e1lisis de la variaci\u00f3n del lempira frente al d\u00f3lar: perspectiva prepandemia, pandemia y pospandemia en la econom\u00eda hondure\u00f1a"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Antecedentes<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">En Honduras, las remesas y las reservas internacionales modulan la trayectoria del lempira, La pandemia de COVID-19 provoc\u00f3 choques externos que incrementaron la volatilidad del HNL\/USD, , Estudios previos aplicando modelos ARIMA y GARCH muestran sensibilidad de la moneda hondure\u00f1a a la incertidumbre global.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Objetivo<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Evaluar la variaci\u00f3n del tipo de cambio HNL\/USD y su volatilidad en los per\u00edodos prepandemia, pandemia y pospandemia, identificando diferencias significativas y factores macroecon\u00f3micos asociados.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Metodolog\u00eda<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Se utilizaron series mensuales (en.-2017\u2013 dic.-2024) de tipo de cambio, reservas internacionales y remesas (fuente: BCH, FMI). Tras pruebas de estacionariedad, se estim\u00f3 un modelo ARIMA (2,1,1). La significancia de par\u00e1metros se verific\u00f3 mediante m\u00e1xima verosimilitud y pruebas Ljung-Box. Para contrastar niveles y varianzas entre per\u00edodos se aplicaron ANOVA de una v\u00eda y prueba de Bartlett <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(\u03b1 = 0,05). El an\u00e1lisis se realiz\u00f3 en Stata 18.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusiones\/Recomendaciones<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">El per\u00edodo prepandemia mostr\u00f3 estabilidad cambiaria; la pandemia gener\u00f3 depreciaci\u00f3n (\u2248 0,20 HNL) y volatilidad; el per\u00edodo pospandemia evidencia recuperaci\u00f3n sin alcanzar la estabilidad previa. Se recomienda: metas de acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas, incentivos a inversi\u00f3n extranjera en sectores no tradicionales, adopci\u00f3n de modelos GARCH para monitoreo de volatilidad y sistemas de alerta temprana.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":1314,"template":"template-poster-p2025.php","categories":[12],"colaboracion":[18,13],"investigador":[112],"tipo":[7],"class_list":["post-1313","poster","type-poster","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-12","colaboracion-ceutec","colaboracion-unitec","investigador-jonatan-gabriel-duron-silva","tipo-impresos"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>An\u00e1lisis de la variaci\u00f3n del lempira frente al d\u00f3lar: perspectiva prepandemia, pandemia y pospandemia en la econom\u00eda hondure\u00f1a<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.unitec.edu\/conicieti\/poster\/analisis-de-la-variacion-del-lempira-frente-al-dolar-perspectiva-prepandemia-pandemia-y-pospandemia-en-la-economia-hondurena\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"An\u00e1lisis de la variaci\u00f3n del lempira frente al d\u00f3lar: perspectiva prepandemia, pandemia y pospandemia en la econom\u00eda hondure\u00f1a\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Antecedentes En Honduras, las remesas y las reservas internacionales modulan la trayectoria del lempira, La pandemia de COVID-19 provoc\u00f3 choques externos que incrementaron la volatilidad del HNL\/USD, , Estudios previos aplicando modelos ARIMA y GARCH muestran sensibilidad de la moneda hondure\u00f1a a la incertidumbre global. 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